While the PA primary is fast approaching on April 22nd, it is actually the May 6th primaries in Indiana and North Carolina that are on everyone’s main watch list.

Why you ask?

Because May 6th is when the Democratic Primary process will officially be over.

According to a new Newsweek article, May 6th is the new Super Tuesday, and with good reason. The May 6th primaries will give Barack Obama the opportunity of bust this race wide open and seal it up for good. With a combined 187 delegates up for stake, the May 6th primaries are the last big delegate haul on the calendar.

Both campaigns have been campaigning hard in both IN and NC in order to shore up those last few votes. Recent polls have Obama with a current 21-point lead in NC, while the IN polls Sen. Clinton appears to have a slight edge over Obama.

Why it will realistically be over

Although Sen. Clinton is very likely to win in PA, Obama will still do quite well in the state. If this rings true, Sen. Clinton will make up very little ground in the popular vote and the pledged delegate count. Obviously, if Obama were to pull a PA upset, then May 6th will make no difference.

If Clinton wins in PA, May 6th then becomes the next big test. Given Obama’s current poll lead in NC, along with the fact they are virtually tied in IN, Obama could potentially wrap it up then.

Now, Clinton has vowed to stay in the race until the convention, but after May 6th, I just don’t see that happening. With rumored finanical troubles of the Clinton campaign, it would be a really hard story to sell for her to keep going on in the race.

But wait, Obama won’t have the 2,024 needed

That is correct. Even after the May 6th primaries, Obama will still not have the 2,024 delegates needed to wrap up the race “officially”. This is, I think, the reason that Clinton will stay in the race through the convention. She is clearly running on the “to the bitter end” philosophy.

She is also still bound and damn determined to have FL and MI delegates seated at the convention. If May 6th goes Obama’s way, Obama can actually give her FL and MI and still hold the lead in votes, delegates, and states won. That would for sure end it for Sen. Clinton.

Needless to say, it is getting pretty interesting and I am anxious to see what happens over the next few weeks.